El Niño planet-warming weather phase has begun
Storms, droughts and record high temperatures lie ahead as US scientists confirm El Niño has arrived.
www.bbc.co.ukHere’s a concise update on the latest ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) status and what it means.
Direct answer
- As of early 2025, NOAA and other climate agencies reported that after a La Niña phase, the tropical Pacific transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, with forecasts favoring neutral conditions through the spring and the potential emergence of El Niño later in 2025. This neutral period marks a transition phase between La Niña and El Niño, with ongoing monitoring for any shift toward El Niño later in the year. [NOAA Climate.gov update and CPC discussion corroborate the end of La Niña and the move to ENSO-neutral, with forecasts for possible El Niño development later in 2025].[3][5]
What this means for weather and climate
- Global weather patterns may show reduced La Niña-associated impacts (e.g., generally wetter conditions in some tropical regions and drier patterns in others) during ENSO-neutral periods, with the potential for El Niño to bring warmer global temperatures and different rainfall distribution if El Niño develops. Forecasters typically emphasize continued attention to Niño3.4 SST anomalies and atmospheric feedbacks to determine if and when El Niño signals strengthen. [NOAA CPC/Climate.gov guidance on ENSO-neutral ongoing through summer and potential El Niño emergence].[5][3]
Recent sources to check for updates
- NOAA Climate.gov ENSO updates page for the current status and outlook. It provides the official status, latest advisories, and forecast probabilities. [NOAA Climate.gov ENSO page].[3]
- The CPC/NWS ENSO Diagnostic Discussion releases periodic outlooks and advisories with probabilities for El Niño or La Niña re-emergence. [NOAA CPC ENSO discussions].[8]
Illustration (conceptual)
- A simple mental model: La Niña cools surface waters in the eastern Pacific (wet bias in some places), ENSO-neutral is a transitional state with SSTs near average, and El Niño warms those waters (shifts rainfall and temperature patterns globally). Right now, the system is in transition toward neutral, with El Niño possible later if warming persists. [NOAA and educational pages on ENSO phases].[5][3]
Would you like me to pull the latest explicit forecasts (with probabilities and timeframes) from NOAA CPC and share a brief, sourced summary for the next 6–12 months? I can also create a quick chart of SST anomalies if you want a visual.